Indicadores Macroeconómicos Globais Cenário de Fragmentação Geoeconomica — Horizonte 2026–2030 Região PIB 2026e PIB 2030e Infla Dívida PIB2030 Risco Vectores Dominantes Estados Unidos ▼ +2.4% +1.8–2.1% +2.4–3.2% 143% ALTO Dívida insustentável Erosão dólar Pressão Fed União Europeia ▼ +1.3% +1.4–1.9% +1.
Strategic sovereignty, supply chain immunity, and the choice between vassalage and constitutional sovereignties The world that emerges from the geoeconomic fragmentation described in Article I is not multipolar—it is bipolar and asymmetrical. Two superpowers are consolidating spheres of influence with distinct logics but with the same practical effect: the
From asymmetric disruption to institutionalized coercion. In an international system undergoing accelerated transition, the distinction between economic terrorism practiced by pariah states and the economic coercion exercised by great powers has become analytically untenable. What changes between the two is not the nature of the act—it is its plausible
Supply chains, industrial power, and the reshaping of the global geopolitical order. Analyses of the contemporary geopolitical order continue, to a large extent, to use 20th-century categories to describe a system that has transcended them. We talk about tariffs when we should be talking about value chains. We talk about